基于PEI的我国环境与经济绩效评价

摘要

当前以GDP增长为主的地方政府绩效考核体系对环境保护等公共服务激励不足,导致地方政府的环境保护绩效不理想.在参考资源、环境和经济综合评价相关研究成果的基础上,采用GDP 与污染物排放关联分析的方法,构建了PEI(pollution &economy index,污染与经济指标),从环境代价和经济效益两个维度评价区域环境与经济发展的协调程度.以2007—2016年?中国统计年鉴?和?中国环境统计年鉴?数据为基础,通过计算GDP 和污染物排放当量(CODCr、氨氮、SO2、NOx),对我国30个省(市)区的环境与经济绩效(不含港澳台及西藏自治区的数据,下同)进行了分析与评价.结果表明,2006—2015年全国平均GDP与平均污染物排放当量的比值总体上呈上升趋势,多年平均增长率高达13.66%,我国的总体环境与经济效益有所改善.从PEI全国排名来看,PEI优于全国平均水平的省(市)区数量有所增加(由原来的9个增至12个). 2015年PEI排名前三位的依次为北京、上海和天津,而排名落后的3个省区依次为宁夏、新疆和甘肃.研究显示,PEI模型计算简单,可对不同发展阶段的省(市)区进行相对客观的评价,具有较高的稳定性和可操作性,对优化现有政府绩效考核指标具有重要的参考价值.%Local government performance evaluation systems leading to environmental protection performance of local governments were not good especially for public services such as environmental protection incentive. The GDP and pollution emissions correlation analysis is put forward and the pollution & economy index (PEI) is constructed, based on the resources, environment and economy comprehensive evaluation relevant research results. The coordination degree of regional environment and economic development was evaluated from two dimensions including environmental cost and economic benefit. Based on the data from 2007-2016 of China statistical yearbook and China environmental statistics yearbook,environmental and economic performance of 30 provinces(the data do not include Hong Kong,Macao, Taiwan and Tibet Autonomous Region) were analyzed and evaluated by calculating national average GDP and average pollutant emission equivalent (i.e.,CODCr,ammonia nitrogen,SO2and NOx). The results show that:the ratio between national average GDP and average emission of pollutant equivalent had been rising,with the annual average growth rate of 13.66 percent from 2006 to 2015,which indicates that the overall environment and economy were benefited. According to PEI′s national ranking, the number of provinces with PEI value higher than national average increased from 9 to 12 from 2006-2015, which indicates overall environment and economic performance of provinces in China were improved. For PEI ranking, the top three provinces were Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin cities versus the lower ranked three provinces are Ningxia,Xinjiang and Gansu provinces. Case study shows that the PEI model calculation is simple and can be used on different development stage of the provinces and autonomous regions, which has relatively objective evaluation result and high stability and maneuverability. PEI has an important reference value for optimizing existing performance evaluation indicators of local governments.