首页> 中文期刊> 《第四纪研究》 >近千年来中国气温模拟与重建资料的对比分析

近千年来中国气温模拟与重建资料的对比分析

         

摘要

With more and more effects of human activities on natural climate variability, the climate change becomes enormously complex in the past 1000 years, which is the key period for linking the proxy data and instrumental observation periods. It is crucial to further reveal the role and mechanism of climate change in this special period despite the fact it is quite difficult due to scarcity and uncertainty of proxy data. To compensate for the deficiency of the proxy data.climate model is used as an important tool in paleoclimate research areas with the advantage in revealing the internal mechanism and response to external forcing factors of climate change. The sea-atmospheric coupled climate model ECHO-G has been proved to be an efficient climate model for both paleoclimate and modern climate research,but its simulation performance in China region needs to be further examined. In this paper,the simulated annual mean temperature series averaged in China region in last 1000 years is compared with two reconstructed proxy series,which was processed by Yang et al. [18] ( named Y series)and Wang et al. [19] (W series) respectively,to validate the performance of the global climate coupled model ECHO-G in simulating the climate of China. The results indicate that the model successfully reproduces the medieval warm period( MWP)from llth to 14th century,little ice age ( LIA) from 15th to 19th century and present warm period ( PWP) ,and the transition times from one period to another are also well corresponding to the reconstruction of Y series. Moreover,the features of simulated temperature in various areas of Eastern China are consistent with that in W series. It means that the model captures the essence characteristics of the temperature change in China during last millennium. Further study on the simulation shows that the West China can be divided into two parts based on the simulated temperature : North West China and Tibetan Plateau. The climate change in the former is well consistent with the East China but the latter is different in various seasons. There exists significant difference in temperature change between Tibetan Plateau and other regions in winter while the similarity prevails in other seasons. Temperature of Tibetan Plateau in winter is characterized bv obvious upward trend in the last millennium,implying that it was cold in WMP in Plateau in winter.%依据伞球海气耦合气候模式ECHO-G近千年积分模拟结果,通过对中国气温模拟序列与重建资料进行对比分析,以验证模式对中国地区气温变化的模拟能力.结果表明模拟结果与重建资料都明显体现出了11世纪至14世纪的中世纪暖期、15世纪至19世纪的小冰期及20世纪的现代暖期3个气候特征时期,并且二者在冷暖时期的转换时间上也较吻合,模拟序列较好再现了重建气温的变化特点.对模拟资料的进一步分析表明中国西部可以分为西北地区及青藏高原地区,其中西北地Ⅸ气温变化与中国东部保持较好的一致性,而青藏高原地区在近千年来的气温变化与周边地区具有明显的季节差异.上升趋势足青藏高原近千年来冬季气温最显著的变化特征,所以就冬季来说,青藏高原地区在中世纪时期气候偏冷.

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