气候多变型区域配电系统可靠性预测

摘要

为研究天气情况对配网系统可靠性预测结果的影响,在考虑三态气候状态下建立了可靠性评估的隐马尔科夫链模型,针对配网系统运行过程中所监测到的性能特征参数和不能与运行状态简单地一一对应的问题,来识别多观测序列下装备隐含的状态变迁过程.根据建立的状态变迁模型并结合切普曼—柯尔莫哥洛夫微分方程来推断系统运行可靠性.最后通过算例验证了文中模型及算法的可用性.%To investigate effects of weather condition on reliability prediction of distribution network system, the reliability evaluation of hidden Markov chain (HMC) model was established based on the consideration of three weather conditions. The HMC model was introduced considering the complicated relation with dynamic characteristics and operational state of the equipment, and the hidden state transition process was identified through monitoring the dynamic characteristics of the equipment with multiple observation sequences. Furthermore, Chapman-Kolmogorov equation was adopted to infer the operation reliability level of the equipment. Finally, an example proved the availability of the proposed model and algorithm.