基于TRL的智能电网技术成熟度评估

摘要

技术成熟度的评估对指导技术改良以推动智能电网发展具有重要意义.该文提出了针对智能电网相关技术成熟度的评估指标体系及方法.从技术性能、技术的经济价值、技术的社会与环境影响3个方面构建评估指标体系,基于序关系-变异系数法综合主客观赋权的影响获取评估结果.对于技术性能,创新性地建立了技术成熟等级评估方法获取其发展水平.此外,针对底层指标的不确定性,引入Gram-Charlier级数获取技术成熟度评估结果的置信度.电动汽车充放电技术应用实例显示,评估结果不仅能够给出技术发展的成熟水平,还能够给出技术发展的优势与短板,有助于明确未来技术改良方向.%The evaluation of technology readiness is of significance for the technology improvement of smart grid.In this paper,a set of index system and an evaluation method related to the technology readiness of smart grid are proposed.Specifically,the evaluation index system is established from three aspects,i.e.,technology performance,economic value of technology,as well as social and environmental influence of technology.By using the ordering relation-coefficient method to combine the effects of subjective weight and objective weight comprehensively,the evaluation results are obtained.As for technology performance,its development level is obtained by establishing a technology readiness level (TRL) evaluation method innovatively.Moreover,if there is uncertainty in the underlying index,then Gram-Charlier series is introduced to calculate the confidence level of TRL evaluation results.The result of an application to the charging-discharging of electric vehicles can not only show the readiness of technology development,but also show its advantages and disadvantages,which is helpful for the determination of the direction of future technology improvement.