[目的]预测假高粱在我国的潜在分布区,为控制其在我国进一步传播扩散提供依据.[方法]基于采样后的假高粱(Sorghum halepense)全球分布数据,以19个生物气候因子作为预测的环境因子,MaxEnt模型作为物种适生性预测模型,同时结合假高粱的生态学参数,预测假高粱在我国的潜在分布.[结果]假高粱在我国有广泛的潜在分布区,目前的实际分布远没有达到其最大潜在分布范围,因此仍有可能继续扩散.最冷季节平均气温、年平均气温、最干季节降水量和最冷季节降水量等环境要素对假高粱的生长和分布具有重要影响.[结论]必须采取有效措施阻止假高粱的扩散.%[Objective] The potential distribution of Sorghum halepense in China was predicted so as to provide the basis for the prevention of its transmission and dispersal. [Method] Using the 19 bioclimatic factors as environmental variables, employing the MaxEnt model as prediction model, based on the sampled distribution data of S.halepense in northern hemisphere, and combined with the ecological parameters of S. halepense, the potential distribution of S. halepense in China was predicted. [Result] The potential distribution area of S. halepense was much larger than its current distribution area in China. Therefore, S. halepense is expected to expand in China.Mean temperature of coldest quarterly and annual mean temperature, precipitation of the driest quarter and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors affecting the growing and distribution of S. halepense. [Conclusion] Effective measures must be taken to protect the expansion of S. halepense in China.
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