基于MaxEnt的麦瘟病在全球及中国的潜在分布区预测

摘要

[目的]麦瘟病是小麦上的一种新病害,明确该病害在全球及我国的潜在分布区域,对于有效控制此病害在全球的扩展蔓延具有重要的意义.[方法]利用MaxEnt生态位模型预测麦瘟病在全球及我国的潜在分布.[结果]南美中东部、非洲东南部和中西部、南亚东南部和东南亚以及澳大利亚东部沿海地区是该病害在全球的主要适生区;而该病害在我国的适生区仅包括云南、广东和海南等省的少数地区.[结论]该病害在我国的适生区较小,但随着全球气候变化,该病原菌的潜在分布范围可能将进一步扩大.%[Objective]Wheat blast is a new wheat disease caused by Magnaporthe grisea, and now it has become one of the major diseases of wheat in South America.It is urgent to determine the potential geographical distribution of M.grisea in China and the world.[Method]The potential distribution regions of M.grisea in the world and China were predicted by using MaxEnt model.[Result]Mid-east of South America, Southeast and Midwest of Africa, southeast of South Asia, Southeast Asia and east coast of Australia are the main suitable areas for M.grisea in the world.The suitable areas for M.grisea cover only some areas in Yunnan, Guangdong and Hainan in China.[Conclusion]The predicted results showed that the suitable areas for M.grisea in China are relatively small.Climate change may make the potential distribution regions of M.grisea larger.