深水防喷器系统是深水井控的核心设备，它的失效是导致 Macondo 深水井漏油事故的重要原因之一。为了识别 Macondo 井防喷器系统的主要失效原因，采用故障树分析法结合其防喷器失效过程进行分析，建立了具有14个基本事件的系统失效故障树。通过求解故障树的最小割集和径集，分别找出了系统失效的10种模式，对基本事件进行结构重要度计算，结果表明，剪切面有钻杆接头、内 BOP 阀门未关闭、水下蓄能器漏失等是导致系统失效的主要原因。对 Macondo 井防喷器系统失效概率的近似计算与实际情况相符，验证了失效原因分析的正确性。该研究有助于对 Macondo 深水井漏油事故的进一步分析，对深水防喷器的设计和选用也具有一定的理论指导作用和参考价值。%Deepwater BOP system is the core equipment for deepwater well control .It was the failure of such system that led to the oil spill of Macondo well .To understand why such failure occurred ,the fault tree analysis was made ,and together with the analysis of failure process ,a fault tree for system failure with 14 events was built .By solving the minimal cut sets and path sets ,10 failure modes are identified to calcu-late the structural importance for basic events ,it was found that the BOP system failure in Macondo acci-dent was mainly attributed to shear plane on pipe joints ,inside BOP valve not closed ,and leakage of under-water hydraulic accumulator .The probability value of the BOP system failure is consistent with the real case of accident ,which demonstrates the validity of the failure analysis .The research is favorable to further investigate the Macondo oil spill ,and also provides a theoretical reference for design and application of deepwater BOP .
展开▼
