选取开都河与乌鲁木齐河山区流域为研究区域,利用有关水文气象台站1960-2005年的观测资料,对研究区域的气温、降水与出山径流的变化特征及趋势进行了分析,并根据研究区域气候变化的特征与趋势及出山径流与山区降水、气温之间的关系,假定不同的气候情景组合,建立山区径流对气候变化的响应模型,以揭示天山南、北坡河流出山径流对气候变化的响应及其差异.结果表明,开都河与乌鲁木齐河山区径流与气温、降水量均呈正相关关系,受山区降水、气温持续增加和上升的影响,出山径流总体呈上升趋势,1990年代以后的升幅尤为显著;相对而言,乌鲁木齐河山区径流对降水变化更为敏感,而开都河出山径流对气温变化的敏感性略甚于气温.%The mountain watersheds of Maidu river and Urumqi fiver,which are respectively located at the south slope and north slope of the Tianshan Mountains,are selected as a studying area,and the characteristics and trends on variation of temperature,precipitation and runoff and the relationships between temperature,precipitation and runoff were analyzed based on the past 50 years observational data at some relevant hydrological and weather stations in the area,and the various weather scene combination were assumed and the responding models of runoff to climate change were established in the area to reveal sensitivity of runoff in the area to climate change on the basis ofthe foregoing analysis.The results show that all variations of temperature,precipitation and runoff in the area have been presenting an oscillating and rising trend as a whole since 1 960s,and the rising ranges are quite obvious since 1990s.However.there are also 80me territorial variances between the response of mountain runoff ot Kaidu river and the that of Urumqi fiver basin.Relatively,the mountain runoff of Urumqi river basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than temperature change and the runoff all have a positive correlative relationship with temperature and precipitation,and change of runoff rests with mainly change of precipitation,and that the mountain runoff ofKaidu fiver basin has a positive correlative relationship with precipitation and it has a negative correlative relationship with temperature,and the runoff increases along with precipitation increase and it decreases along with temperature rising.
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