To develop forestry is an important way to reduce poverty for mountainous regions.The authorities intend to know the effect of preferential policies which has been introduced to encourage farmers to engage in forestry.Using traditional regression analysis,it is difficult to eliminate non-political factors influences.Hence,in this paper,Hence,based on data of survey of 483 farmers in Fujian province,Propensity Score Matching method (PSM),a way to simulate natural experiment through treatment and control group,were adopted to analyze 6 policy projects:co-peasant household,co-operative organization,technology services,land circulation,forest insurance and loan.The result showed that:(1) 3 polices,co-peasant household,forest insurance and loan,could effectively promote silviculture.participants'silviculture area respectively grew by 17.90％,14.15％,18.86％ than those of non-participants.(2) Ohers,co-operative organization,technology services,land circulation,had no significant effect.We advocate that current preferential policies which are breadth but non-depth should be fine-tuned.Main police (s) should vary with different stage of silviculture to meet the farmers' demand so as to gradually realize largescale and specialized operation in forestry.%发展林业是山区脱贫增收的重要途径,国家为促进山区农民参与林业生产,推出了众多惠农政策,这些政策实际效果如何,是政策设计者十分关心的问题.普通回归分析难以剔除非政策因素干扰,为此,尝试使用倾向得分匹配法(PSM),模拟自然科学实验模式,设置“处理组”和“对照组”,基于福建省483户调研数据分析联户经营、林业合作组织、林业科技服务、林权流转、森林保险和林权贷款6个政策项目对林业生产的实际促进作用.结果显示:1)联户经营、森林保险、林权贷款3项政策能够有效激励农户进行林业生产,项目参与者平均营林面积比未参与者分别高17.90％、14.15％、18.86％;2)林业合作组织、林业科技服务、林权流转对林业生产的促进作用尚不明显.根据实证结果,建议适当改变目前林业政策“有广度缺深度”状态,根据不同的森林经营阶段,针对农户在该阶段的主要需求,有的放矢地重点实施一项(或少数几项)政策,逐步实现林业规模化、专业化经营.
展开▼
