在城市总体规划中，市域总人口规模的预测结果常偏差过大，主要由于现有预测方法存在一些缺陷。本文在总结国内现有预测方法的现状与不足的基础上，提出基于城市吸引力的预测方法，以补充现有方法。通过解读城市吸引力的内涵，选取相关指标，再结合国内统计资料情况确定相关变量。为验证预测方法的可行性，本研究以国内三大城市群中的城市为案例，确定各指标与市域总人口规模的相关性，并提出该预测方法的适用性及尚待改进的地方。% In the master planning in China, the predictor of total population size of a city usually deflects seriously, which is mainly caused by some defects of existing predicting methods. Based on summarizing the current situation of existing methods and their shortcomings, this paper proposes a predicting method base on urban attraction as a supplement. According to the connotation of urban attraction, indexes that can reflect the urban life attraction are selected firstly. And then combining with the possibility of official statistics, the variables in the predicting method are defined. Furthermore, taking cities categorized into three types of large cities, middle and small cities, and size-span cities in China’s three largest urban agglomerations as cases, this study conducts the correlative analysis between each variable and the total population size of a city to demonstrate the feasibility of the method. Finally, the practicability of the method and its defects are discussed
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