基于非等间距GM(1,1)模型群对深井巷道围岩变形的预测

摘要

针对时间间距不同的深井巷道围岩变形问题,文章建立了全数据非等间距GM(1,1)模型和不同维数的部分数据非等间距GM(1,1)模型,通过误差比较分析,得到了相对误差最小的模型为5维部分数据非等间距GM(1,1)模型,并对巷道顶底板和两帮位移量做出了预测.结果表明:在一定范围内,维数越小,非等间距GM(1,1)模型的平均相对误差越小,为预测巷道围岩变形提供了一种良好的方法.%In order to overcome surrounding rock deformation problems for a deep roadway with different intervals, a full data non-equidistant GM(1,1)model and a partial data non-equidistant different-dimension GM(1,1)model are established,a 5-dimensional partial data non-equidistant GM(1,1)model with smallest relative error is obtained after error analysis,and displacements of the roadway roof and floor,as well as two sides,are predicted.The result shows the smaller the dimension,the smaller the average relative error of the non-equidistant GM(1,1)model within a certain range,making it a good method for predicting surrounding rock deformation of a roadway.