基于影响图的装备维修决策模型研究

摘要

为了平衡系统安全、运行效率以及全寿命周期费用等多方面的需求,决策支持系统在维修决策领域起到了越来越大的作用。通过综合分析维修状态,维修决策,维修目标,维修价值等多方面的因素,提出了一种基于影响图的新型维修决策支持模型用于解决装备维修决策问题。建立了维修决策影响图模型的网络结构,详述了其维修目标条件概率分布及价值节点效用赋值,并结合仿真过程描述了影响图维修决策模型的实施应用步骤。通过不同维修方案的维修费用对比,表明此模型能够利用概率推理为维修人员提供最优的维修方案。%Decision support systems play an important role in equipment maintenance fields to balance among the high demand for system safety,operational efficiency and life cycle cost control.By integrating the maintenance conditions,maintneance decisions,maintenance objects and maintenance costs,a newly developed influence diagram decision model is introduced to solve the maintenance decision making problem.First,the network structure of the maintenance decision model based on influence diagram is built.The conditional probabilities of maintenace objects and the utility values of maintenance costs are also described in details.Finally,the influence diagram maintenance decision model application process is demonstrated by a simulation study.The calculated costs of different maintenance schemes verify that the proposed model can provide the best maintenance scheme for maintenance decision makers.