灾害天气下大型桥梁运营风险分析

摘要

为了量化大型桥梁灾害天气下的运营风险，提出了1种风险分析模型。抽样调查数据经统计分析后得出：（1）灾害天气包括，冰、雾、雪、冰雹、暴雨、风；（2）交通拥堵作为风险评判指标；（3）大桥运营风险影响因素包括，灾害天气的种类、等级、持续时间、空间连续性、以及节假日、时段、车型比例等。在此基础上，应用调查数据建立了模糊层次分析模型（fuzzy analytic hierarchy process ，Fuzzy-AHP）。该方法可以在客观数据缺失的情况下得出大桥运营风险结果和风险发生的概率，为大桥管理者制定合适的应急预案提供依据。最后利用苏通大桥运营情况验证了模型的有效性。%In order to quantify the large bridge operational risk under disaster weather ,a risk analysis model is put forward .It can be concluded from sample survey that :(1) disaster weathers include :ice ,fog ,snow ,hail ,rainstorm , and wind ;(2) traffic congestion is considered as the index of risk evaluation ;(3) the influence factors of large bridge op-eration risk include :the type of disaster weathers ,level ,duration ,space continuity ,and holiday ,time period ,rate of ve-hicle models ,etc .Based on that ,Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP) is established by survey data .This ap-proach can obtain the consequence and probability of risk under the condition of missing objective data ,and provide the decision support for emergency .Finally ,the model validity is tested by the operation situations of Su-Tong Changjiang Highway Bridge .