债券市场与经济发展的相关性分析--以我国银行间债券市场为例

摘要

债券市场是资本市场的重要组成部分，但目前我国资本市场发展阶段的特征表现为债券市场发展缓慢，为了扩大我国直接融资规模并完善多层次资本市场体系，需要大力发展债券市场。本文以我国债券市场的主体---银行间债券市场为例，分析了我国银行间债券市场的现状以及对国民经济发展的作用，并以1993-2012年我国国民生产总值、银行间债券市场债券发行额和股市筹资额共20年时间的时间序列数据为样本建立相关性模型，通过回归模型进一步实证研究了银行间债券市场与经济发展的相关性，发现银行间债券市场债券发行额与国民生产总值呈显著的正相关关系，表明银行间债券市场是经济发展的重要推动力，该市场规模的扩大有助于推动经济增长，从而说明了我国银行间债券市场创新的必要性。%The bond market is an important part of the capital market, but the characteristics of the present stage of develo-pment of China's capital market performance for the slow development of the bond market. In order to expand our direct financing scale and improve the multi-level capital market system, we need vigorously develop the bond market. This paper sets China's bond market main body---the inter-bank bond market as an example, analyses the status of China's inter-bank bond market and its effect on the development of the national economy, uses time series data of China's GDP, the inter-bank bond market bond issuance and stock market financing from 1993 to 2012 to establish the correlation model for sample, through the regression model further empirical research on the relationship between the inter-bank bond market and economic development, finds out that the inter-bank bond market's bond issuance and GDP has a significant positive correlation, showing that the inter-bank bond market is an important driving force for economic development, the market scale will help promote economic growth, this explains the necessity of innovation in China's interbank bond market.