基于贴近度的技术成熟度评估方法及应用

摘要

Expert assessment method based on TRL(Technology Readiness Levels) method is widely used at present TRA(Te-chnology Readiness Assessment). This method relies too much on experts' knowledge and lacks objectivity. Meanwhile , since experts can only passively answer the questions set by TRL point by point during the assessment , experts' assessment thinking and orientation are unable to be effectively concentrated and specified , which result in redundant labor and low efficiency. This paper puts forward a TRA method based on close degree, sets up multilevel assessment parameter structure and introduces such key technologies as the determination of number of levels RC, establishment of RC, selection of RC characteristic parameter and ex-pert assessment data processing. To a large extent, it solves the above-mentioned problems in the present TRA and gives an out-look to application of openness of assessing parameter structure.%目前技术成熟度评估普遍采用基于TRL的专家评估方法，该方法过度依赖专家知识，客观性不足，同时评估过程专家只能被动的逐条回答按照TRL设置的一系列问题，专家的评估思路和评估方向不能有效集中和明确，导致重复劳动，效率降低。本文提出了基于贴近度的技术成熟度评估方法，构建了多层次的评估参数结构，并结合实例介绍了技术成熟度基准状态层次数量的确定、基准状态的建立、基准状态特征参数的选择、专家评估数据处理等关键技术，在很大程度上解决了目前技术成熟度评估中的上述问题，并且对该方法的评估参数结构的开放性的特点的应用进行了展望。