基于FA和VAR模型的房地产信心指数实证研究

摘要

近几年，政府的宏观调控政策层出不穷，房地产市场受到影响的同时，各参与主体的心理也产生了极大的冲击。文章首先选择线性模型构建购房者信心指数，利用因子分析法确定各项指标的权重系数，计算合成购房者信心指数。然后在向量自回归模型基础之上，分析其和房地产开发综合景气指数之间的互动关系来评价购房者信心指数的性能。通过脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解分析，研究二者的脉冲响应特性。 Granger因果关系检验结果表明，购房者信心指数和房地产开发综合景气指数之间存在单向的因果关系。脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析表明，购房者信心指数对房地产开发综合景气指数的影响远远大于后者对购房者信心指数的影响。因此，购房者信心指数能够反映消费者对房地产市场的心理变化，对未来房地产市场的发展有指导和预测作用。%In recent years, the government's macro-control policies are emerging in an endless stream. While the real estate market is affected, the mentality of each participant also has a tremendous impact. At first, the paper selected a linear model to build homebuyer confidence index, used factor analysis to determine the indicators weight coefficient, and then calculated to syn-thesize homebuyer confidence index. The interaction between homebuyer confidence index and real estate development climate in-dex was analyzed to evaluate the performance of homebuyer confidence index based on vector autoregressive model. Impulse re-sponse function and variance decomposition analysis were used to describe impulse response characteristic. The results of Granger causality test indicated that there was a one-way causal relationship from homebuyer confidence index to real estate development climate index. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis showed that the impact of homebuyer confidence index on real estate development climate index is far greater than that of the latter on homebuyer confidence index. Therefore , homebuy-er confidence index could reflect consumer psychological changes of the real estate market , guide and predict the future develop-ment of real estate market.