随着智能手机的不断普及，移动互联网迅速向社会各个领域渗透。移动互联网不仅方便了人们的生活和工作，也成为推动社会创新和促进经济增长的引擎，对促进我国经济增长具有重要意义。文章利用偏最小二乘回归方法，对移动商务技术扩散起步阶段和起飞阶段的影响因素分别进行了实证研究。实证研究结果表明，在起步阶段，影响我国移动商务扩散的重要因素包括信息化水平、城市化水平、经济发展水平、居民收入水平、区域创新能力和基础设施；在起飞阶段，影响我国移动商务扩散的重要因素包括信息化水平、城市化水平、经济发展水平和居民收入水平。从不同因素的影响因子看，信息化水平、城市化水平、经济发展水平、居民收入水平、教育和文化水对移动商务扩散影响的作用正在增强，而区域创新能力和基础设施的重要程度正在减弱。因此，文章认为手机和互联网的普及以及城市化水平提高带来的人口集聚效应和网络外部性会有效促进移动商务技术和应用的扩散。%With the fast spread of smart phones, mobile internet is quickly extending towards all fields of society and it has great significance in promoting the development of China's economy. Mobile internet not only facilitates people's life and work , but also becomes an important engine of innovation and economic growth. This paper analyzes the factors affecting China's m-commerce diffusion at the infant stage and taking-off stage based on the partial least square method respectively. The result shows that the informatization level, urbanization level, economic development level, income level, regional innovation capacity and infrastructure are significant factors at the infant stage, while the informatization level, urbanization level, economic development level and income level are the significant factors at the taking-off stage. Besides, the result also shows that the role of innovation capacity and infrastructure are waning, and the role of informatization level, urbanization level, economic develop-ment level and income level are strengthening. The paper believes that the widespread of mobile phones and internet, the population agglomeration brought by the improvement of urban-ization and network externality will effectively promote the diffusion of mobile commerce technology and application.
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