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中国经济的动态效率--基于产业层面的分析

         

摘要

文章基于我国的投入产出表数据,使用AMSZ现金流准则分析了我国整体经济及产业层面资本积累的动态效率。实证研究结果表明,从1997-2010年这段时期内,中国经济处于动态有效的状态,但动态效率有减弱的趋势;从三次产业来看,1997-2010年三次产业的动态效率的变化趋势各不相同:第一产业和第二产业的动态效率在1997-2010年这段时期内逐渐减弱,以2007年为转折点,由资本积累不足转变为积累过度,第三产业资本积累的动态效率较高且比较稳定;从各产业内部来看,三次产业整体的动态效率与各产业内部的产业动态效率结构紧密相关;讨论经济资本积累是否过度的问题,除了从总量层面来考察外,需要从产业结构层面来考虑资本和投资结构问题,通过结构优化来缓解经济动态无效的状况。%The paper using input-output table data to investigate the dynamic efficiency of China's Industry-level Capital Accumulation with the AMSZ criterion. The empirical results showed that China's economy was dynamic efficient, but the dynamic efficiency was weakening from 1997 to 2010. From the perspective of three industries, the dynamic efficiency of primary industry and secondary industry gradually weakened from the period 1997 to 2010, with 2007 as the turning point, capital accumulation turn from lack to excessive accumulation, the dynamic efficiency of tertiary industry is higher and relatively stable than primary industry and secondary industry. The dynamic efficiency of three industries is closely related to the dynamic efficiency within each industry. In addition to the investigation from the total level, it's necessary to consider the level of capital and investment structure problem from the industrial structure, and then alleviate the economic situation of dynamic invalid by optimizing the structure.

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