基于BADA及航空器意图的四维航迹预测

摘要

为了提高航空器四维轨迹预测的准确性，提出了基于航空器性能数据以及航空器意图的四维航迹预测方法。通过统计分析航空器实际雷达轨迹数据，根据水平轨迹、高度和速度剖面等构建了航空器意图模型。采用航空器意图模型与航空器动力与运动学模型相结合的方法，考虑气象因素，基于性能数据设计了四维航迹预测模型。以国内某机场进场航班ACA025与CES2161为例进行了模拟，将预计到达时刻与实际到达时刻的误差作为评价指标，结果表明：本文提出的算法可以将通过航路点时刻的误差控制在30 s以内。%In order to improve the trajectory prediction accuracy,a new four-dimensional aircraft trajectory prediction approach was presented,which was based on aircraft performance data and aircraft intent. Firstly,through statistical analysis of historical radar data about aircraft trajectories,an aircraft intent model was constructed from the perspective of horizontal trajectory,altitude,and velocity profile. Then the four-dimensional trajectory prediction model was built based on the aircraft intent model in combination with aircrafts kinetic and kinematic models,taking into account the aircraft performance data and meteorological data. Finally,taking arrival flights ACA025 and CES2161 to a domestic airport as examples,a simulation was conducted,in which the error between expected and actual time-of-arrival was chosen as the evaluation criteria. The simulation results show that the proposed trajectory prediction approach can control the error between expected and actual time-of-arrival within 30 s with respect to every passing waypoints.