为揭示国际干散货航运市场的周期性,运用Census X12季节调整法得到趋势循环要素序列；将该序列用CF (Circle-Frequency)滤波进行趋势分解,得到干散货航运市场的趋势和循环成分,获得干散货航运市场周期性特征；用谱分析方法衡量干散货航运市场循环成分的周期长度.结果表明,国际干散货航运市场存在着3.5a左右的周期长度,且波罗的海干散货运价指数(Baltic Dry Index,BDI)是新造船市场、二手船市场和拆解船市场的领先指标,领先时间为5～12个月.该分析对干散货航运市场经营者准确把握市场动向、提高收益和规避风险具有重要意义.%In order to reveal the periodicity of the international dry bulk shipping market, Census X12 seasonal adjustment method is used to get trend-cycle factor series. Circle-Frequency( CF) filter method is chosen to decompose the trend of the series to get the trend component and cycle component of the dry bulk shipping market, and the periodic characteristic of the dry bulk shipping market is obtained. Spectrum analysis method is used to measure the period length of the cycle component of the dry bulk shipping market. The results indicate that there exists a period length of about 3.5 a for the international dry bulk shipping market, and the Baltic Dry Index ( BDI) is the leading indicator of the new shipbuilding market, secondhand ship market and ship-dismantling market, and the lead time is 5 ~ 12 months. This analysis is significant for the dry bulk shipping market operators to grasp market tendency, increase profitability and avoid risk.
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