基于粗糙集的海事事故影响因素分析

摘要

100 reports from 168 latest global maritime accident reports are selected as research samples for quantitative analysis on maritime accident influence factors.By the rough set theory,the importance of membership relationship between the accident grade and the factors such as the accident type,the time of accident,the flag State,the tonnage,the ship type,the ship age,the weather,and the human factors is excavated from the people,ship,and environmental point of view.The deep influence and the degree of connection among the people,ship and environmental factors in maritime accidents can be mined by this method.The conclusions obtained can overcome the subjective influence and has a certain universality.It provides references for maritime regulatory authorities and shipping companies to avoid maritime accidents.It also plays an important role in improving shipping safety management and reducing maritime accidents.%为定量分析海事事故的影响因素,从最新国内外168份海事事故报告中选择100份事故报告作为研究样本,运用粗糙集理论从人、船、环境的角度研究事故类型、事故发生时间、船旗国、吨位、船型、船龄、气象、人为因素等与事故等级之间的重要性隶属度关系.该方法可挖掘船舶海事事故中人、船及环境因素的深层次影响及关联程度,所得结论具有一定的普遍性,可克服主观影响,为海事监管部门和航运企业避免海事事故的发生提供参考,对提高航运安全管理、减少海事事故的发生具有重要作用.