长江航道航行环境风险评价

摘要

为对长江航道环境风险进行评价,利用物元可拓理论和熵权法,建立熵权物元可拓评价模型.以自然环境、通航条件、交通环境为一级指标,12个风险因素为二级指标组成风险评价体系.在该模型中,对量化的评价指标进行归一化处理,构建长江航道航行环境风险等级评估的经典域、节域和待评物元.通过熵权法确定指标权重,利用该模型计算关联函数值并进行关联度分析,确定长江航道航行环境风险等级及其变量特征值.选取长江江苏段某航段为实例,运用该模型定量评价该航段航行环境风险的大小.评价结果与实际情况相符,证明了模型的准确性和适用性.%In order to evaluate the navigation environment risk of the Yangtze River,using the matter-element extension theory and the entropy weight method,the entropy-weight matter-element extension assessment model is built.The risk assessment system is established,where the primary indices include the natural environment,the navigation condition and the traffic environment,and the secondary indices contain 12 risk factors.In the model,the quantified evaluation indices are normalized.The classical domain,the joint domain,and the matter element to be evaluated about the risk level evaluation of navigation environment in the Yangtze River are constructed.The weight of each index is determined by the entropy weight method.By the model,the correlation function value is calculated and the correlation degree is analyzed so as to determine the risk level of navigation environment in the Yangtze River and its variable eigenvalue.A segment of Jiangsu section in the Yangtze River is selected as an example,and the navigation environment risk of the segment is quantitatively evaluated by the model.The evaluation result is consistent with the actual situation,which verifies the accuracy and applicability of the model.