以黄龙山林区为研究对象,以其1986、1997、2006年森林资源二类调查资料为数据源,运用GIS空间分析模型、土地利用动态度模型对该林区三期地类面积变化及水平空间格局特征进行了分析,并运用马尔可夫(Markov)模型对2015年地类分布状况进行了预测.结果表明:研究区地类结构以阔叶林和针叶林为主；1986-1997年间,针叶林、阔叶林、农田等面积增加,荒地剧烈减少,反映出该区域天然更新、人工抚育和植树造林以及垦荒造田的发展过程；1997-2006年间,退耕还工程的实施,使农田和荒地减少,阔叶林和灌木林地,特别是针叶林的大幅增加,主要变化趋势为其他土地利用类型转向有林地和灌木林地,土地利用类型向着更加理想的方向转移.Markov模型模拟结果表明,今后9a内阔叶林面积将会由增加转为减少,针叶林面积和针阔混交林面积有所增加,这一结果将在2015年地类变化调查中进行验证.%GIS and the dynamic degree model of land use were used to analyze the change in areas of different forest types in forest regions in Huanglong Mountain using the forest resources inventory data of 1986, 1997 and 2006 as data sources. The distribution of different forest types in 2015 was predicted based on Markov model. Results show that the main types of forest land are broad-leaved forests and coniferous forests. The area of coniferous forests, broad-leaved forests and farmland increased, while the area of barren land obviously decreased from 1986 to 1997, indicating a development process by natural regeneration, artificial tending, afforestation and converting barren land to farmland. With the implementation of conversion of farmland to forests from 1997 to 2006, the area of broad-leaved forests, shrub land, especially coniferous forests, increased, while the area of farmland and barren land decreased. Other land use types changed into forest land and shrub land, which indicated that the land use changed towards the idealized state. Markov prediction reveals that the area of broad-leaved forests will begin to decrease after an increase after nine years, and the area of coniferous forests and coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forests will increase to some extent, which still need to be verified in a survey of forest land change in 2015.
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