A study was performed to analyze the effect of the number of agricultural water pump on preventing and fighting against drought according to the panel data from 28 provinces and cities during 1990-2010. Results showed that increasing number of agricultural water pumps resulted in the decline of disaster prevention ability and the increase of anti-disaster ability. Even though increasing the number of agricultural water pumps can improve anti-disaster ability quickly, but in the end, this may cause the decrease of anti-disaster ability and frequent occurrence of droughts. In order to solve this contradiction and avoid the occurrence of large-area droughts, we should control the number of agricultural water pumps, take into account the self-circulation ability of water resources, make sure the development quantity of water resources, keep the long-term cycle of water resources stable, keep soil moisture content, and reduce the speed of desertification.%利用1990-2010年28个省市的面板数据,分析农用水泵数量对预防旱灾和抵御旱灾的影响,得出农用水泵数量增加导致防旱能力下降,并且导致抗灾能力提高的结论.通过分析发现,增加农用水泵数量虽然能够有效提高抗灾能力,但最终导致防旱灾能力下降,旱灾频发的结果.为解决这一矛盾,应控制农用水泵数量,考虑水资源自循环能力,确定对水资源的开采数量,稳定水资源长期循环,保持土壤水分,减小土壤荒漠化速度,避免大面积旱灾的发生.
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