林农复合经营综合收益预测与分析——预测模型在河北林—粮间作中的应用

摘要

A study was performed to establish a prediction model for integrated gain from agro-forestry management by incorporating the gain from agricultural production and management into the evaluation system for gain from forest management according to the developed Hartman Models of Timber and Amenity Production. The integrated gain from the interplanting of trees and crops in the North China Plain was predicted and analyzed. The working principle for the established model was given. The model can be used to predict the gain from agro-forestry management and provide auxiliary decision making support.%通过借鉴和发展Hartman木材与生态舒适性产出评价模型,研究将农业生产经营收益纳入森林经营收益核算体系中进而建立林农复合经营综合收益的预测和评价模型,选择了华北平原常用的林—粮间作的复合经营模式进行综合收益预测与分析,演示建立的综合收益预测模型的工作原理,为林农复合经营实践提供经营收益的预测结果,辅助经营决策的支持.