博斯腾湖水位变化特征及其可能影响机制分析

摘要

应用开都河下游大山口水文站径流和博斯腾湖1956-2009年的逐月水位数据和流域内各气象站的气象数据,通过模糊聚类等统计方法,分析了博斯腾湖水位变化趋势及其可能影响因子.结果表明:博斯腾湖的水位年际变化受开都河流域径流的影响很大,当开都河流域径流量大时博湖水位较高,且开都河径流与其上、下游气温和降水关系密切.博斯腾湖水位逐年的月变化基本上可以分为5类,其中最主要的为第一类型和第二类型:第一类为递减型,特征为季节变化不明显,水位在春季较高,以后逐渐降低；第二类为递增型,特点是季节变化较第一大类明显,水位在夏末秋初的时候较高,整体呈现上升趋势.递增、递减型出现的主要原因是受上下游降水和大山口径流的影响,当上下游降水和径流偏多时水位月际变化出现递增型,反之易出现递减型.%Based on the monthly water level data of Lake Bosten,runoff of Dashankou station and the meteorological data of weather stations in the valley,statistical methods such as fuzzy clustering are used to analyze the characters of monthly variations of water level in Lake Bosten and its possible mechanism.The results show that the annual variation of water level in Lake Bosten is mainly influenced by the runoff of Dashankou station.The bigger the runoff of River Kaidu is,the higher the water level of Lake Bosten is.The runoff of River Kaidu has close relationship with the temperature and precipitation of upstream and downstream.The variations of water level in Lake Bosten can be divided into five categories.The first type shows a regressive tendency with low seasonal variations,which achieves higher water level in spring but then gradually decreases.The second type shows an increasing trend with more obvious seasonal variations than the first one,which gets higher water level in later summer and early autumn.The tendencies of the other three types are relatively special.The main factor that regulates the variation type of water level is the precipitation of the upstream,downstream and the runoff of Kaidu.Higher precipitation and bigger runoff will make the water level show increasing trend and vice versa.