城市化水平对经济的发展是至关重要的，因此，预测未来我国城市化水平的发展趋势是十分必要的。采用罗吉斯蒂增长模型来预测我国未来20年的城市化发展趋势，预测结果显示，未来20年内，我国城市化率将持续增长，并逐步趋于稳定。我国城市化进程不可发展得过快或过缓。%The urbanization level is very crucial to the economic development, so, predicting the trend of the future urbaniza-tion level in our country is very necessary. Now, there are many methods and models to predict the urbanization level, these methods and models have its own character. This text uses logistic growth model to predict the trend of urbanization level of the next 20 years in our country. The predictions suggest that urbanization level will continue to increase in our country and is moving toward stability, by 2030, urbanization level will be close to about 60%. Combined with the development of Chinese economy and concrete national conditions, these forecasts are scientific and reasonable. Meanwhile the forecasts help urbaniza-tion level find accurate target, the urbanization can not be too fast or too slow.
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