货币供应量对我国货币政策有效性的影响研究--基于1995-2013年的宏观数据

摘要

The paper discusses the effect of money supply on effectiveness of China's monetary policy and observes changes of the effect before and after the international financial crisis breaking out in 2008, by analyzing the macroeconomic data between 1995 and 2013. The result indicates that money is non-neutral,and it has an impact on both the economic output and price changes. Before the financial crisis,the impact has been considered as stable,while credit channel is mainly the transmission channel of economic output and monetary channel is mainly the transmission channel of price. However,after the financial crisis, the impact is obviously uncontrollable. Monetary channel and credit channel have both become the main channel of economic output,also replace the monetary channel as the main transmission channel of price at the same time.%运用1995—2013年的宏观数据，研究货币供应量对我国货币政策有效性的影响及2008年金融危机前后的作用变化，结果表明：货币是非中性的，对经济产出和物价变动均存在影响。在金融危机以前，货币对经济产出和物价变动存在稳定的影响，信贷渠道是经济产出的主要传导渠道，货币渠道是物价变动的主要传导渠道。在金融危机以后，货币对经济产出和物价变动的影响存在明显的不可控性，信贷渠道与货币渠道共同成为经济产出的主要传导渠道，同时取代货币渠道成为物价变动的主要传导渠道。