区域疏散交通管理问题解析及集成建模框架

摘要

为解析区域疏散交通管理所涉及的相关策略及其相互之间的时空关联,从灾害应急管理的全局角度,明确了灾害管理的类型、阶段以及灾害管理过程中所涉及的主要交通管理问题,从而阐明了区域疏散交通管理问题的内涵及外延,建立了包含灾害情景分析、疏散交通需求预测、疏散交通流解析、疏散交通动态分配模型、疏散综合交通管理以及疏散交通管理方案仿真评价等在内的集成疏散交通管理建模框架.该框架能够有效指导区域疏散交通管理问题的分析与建模,对于提高道路网交通疏散效率具有理论和实践价值.%To analyze the relative management strategies during regional evacuation and traffic management and the relationship among them,from the global perspective of disaster emergency management,this paper i-dentifies the types,stages of disaster management and major traffic management issues involved during the process of disaster management.Also,the connotation and extension of regional evacuation traffic management are clarified.Finally,a integrated modeling and analysis framework of evacuation traffic management is estab-lished,including the disaster scenario analysis,evacuation traffic demand forecasting,evacuation traffic flow analysis,evacuation traffic dynamic assignment model,integrated evacuation traffic management and simula-tion evaluation of evacuation traffic management plan.This framework can effectively guide the analysis and modeling of regional evacuation traffic management issue and present a significant theoretical and practical val-ue for improving the efficiency of traffic evacuation in a transportation network.