减灾工程与农业生产产出相关性探析

摘要

To verify the impact of disaster reduction engineering on the agricultural output,we use the grey relational analysis algorithm and the measurement model to standardize many indicators in the agricultural production system,such as waterlogging control,irrigating,embankment and reservoir,and forming the assessment of the degree of the indicator association.At the same time,on the basis of the Cobb-Douglas production function,each indicator is included in the regression analysis,and the quantitative evaluation of waterlogging control and other indicators which affect the output of the agricultural production are completed.The empirical study has shown that the impact of the agricultural disaster reduction engineering on the agricultural production can be arranged from largest to smallest as waterlogging area,irrigating area,embankment length,salinization of arable land improvement area,reservoir capacity,and soil erosion control area;expanding the waterlogging control area,building the reservoir and increasing the length of the embankment can increase the total value of the agricultural output,and the waterlogging control has the greatest utility to increase agricultural output in these measures.The natural disaster hinders the development of agricultural production.And increasing the input of the disaster reduction engineering can be conducive to increase the output of agricultural production.%为测量减灾工程对农业生产产出的影响,用灰色关联分析算法和计量模型方法,对农业生产系统中除涝、灌溉、堤防、水库等指标数据进行了无量纲化处理,形成指标关联度评估,同时在柯布-道格拉斯生产函数基础上将各指标数据纳入回归分析中,完成了除涝等指标对农业生产产出影响的定量评价.实证研究表明：影响农业生产的减灾工程作用从大到小的顺序为：除涝面积、灌溉面积、堤防长度、盐碱地改良面积、水库容量、水土流失治理面积.扩大除涝面积、修建水库、增加堤防长度增加了农业生产总值,其中除涝对增加农业产值的效用最大,自然灾害阻碍了农业生产的发展,加大减灾工程投入有利于增加农业生产产出.