采用模糊云模型的武器研制项目风险传导评估

摘要

In order to make out an objective and fine assessment on risk conduction of weapon development projects, a fuzzy cloud model algorithm is utilized to calculate the impacts that arise from single risk conduction factor upon schedule, cost and performance risk. Then the total impacts from all risk conduction factors are calculated through weighted summation. In addition, the comprehensive risk value is calculated by the ranking method of triangular fuzzy number complementary judgment matrix based on the possibility degree theory. Finally, the values of single impact factor on risk and the total risk sequence are obtained through the simulation operation on X-51 propulsion system project, which requires explicitly for strengthening the index of supervisory control and management. They also verify the validity and feasibility of the proposed identification and evaluation method for risk conduction. This method provides decision⁃making support for the risk conduction managers of weapon development projects.%为实现对武器研制项目风险传导的客观精细化评估，采用模糊云模型的评估算法，首先计算单一风险传导影响因子对进度、费用和性能风险产生的影响大小；然后，通过加权求和的方式计算所有风险传导影响因子产生的总影响；再基于可能度理论，给出三角模糊数互补判断矩阵的排序方法，得到综合风险值；最后，结合X－51发动机项目研制实例，通过仿真运算，得出单一影响因子对风险影响大小值和总风险排序值，明确需要加强监控和管理的指标。仿真结果表明，验证了构建的风险传导识别与评估方法的有效性和可行性，为武器装备研制项目风险传导的管理者提供了决策参考。