基于GIS-Logistic耦合模型的广河县土地利用变化及其驱动因素分析

摘要

[目的]探究甘肃省广河县土地利用演变规律和驱动机制.[方法]基于 GIS平台,运用土地利用转移矩阵模型、二元 Logistic回归模型和 ROC诊断曲线,研究了 2009-2014 年广河县土地利用类型分布及其变化的特征,分析了影响耕地、林地、草地、建设用地、水域和未利用地分布的关键影响因素.[结果]2009-2014 年间,广河县耕地、草地、林地面积有所减少,建设用地面积增加,其中耕地向建设用地转移的面积占总转移量的 51.14%,草地向耕地转移的面积占总转移量的 33.17%.通过 ROC检验得到各种土地类型的拟合度分别为:耕地 0.645,林地0.717,草地 0.797,建设用地 0.954,水域 0.942,未利用地 0.978,拟和结果较满意.[结论]广河县以耕地与草地为主,呈西南耕东北草分布.2009-2014 年间,呈现各土地利用类型向建设用地转移的趋势,其中耕地是建设用地主要转入源,草地是耕地主要补给源.影响耕地分布的关键因素是坡度、高程和人口密度;影响林地分布的关键因素是地形位、坡度和人均纯收入;影响草地分布的关键因素是地形位;影响建设用地分布的关键因素是距村庄距离;影响水域分布的关键因素是高程;影响未利用地分布的关键因素是地形位、高程、人均纯收入、距建制镇的距离和距采矿用地的距离.%[Objective]To investigate the evolution and driving mechanism of land use in Guanghe County of Gansu Province.[Method]Based on the GIS platform,using the land use transfer matrix model, binary logistic regression model and ROC curve ,the paper studied the characteristics of distribution and change of land use types in Guanghe County from 2009 year to 2014 year,and analyzed the key influence factors which impact the distribution of crop land,forest land and grass land,cultivated land,water body and unused land .[Result]From 2009 to 2014,the area of crop land,forest land and grass land decreased, and the area of cultivated land increased.The area of crop land transferred to cultivated land accounted for 51.14% of the total transfer.The area of grass land transferred to crop land accounted for 33.17% of the total transfer.The obtained fitting degree of different land type through the ROC test is 0.645 for crop land,0.717 for forest land,0.797 for grass land,0.954 for cultivated land,0.942 for water body and 0.978 for un-used land.Fitting degree of each land type was more than 0.6 00,which is satisfying.[Conclusion]Crop land and grass land are the main land use types in Guanghe County,crop land distributes in southwest,grass land distributes in northeast.It's the trend that all kinds of land use types change to cultivated land.Crop land is the main source of cultivated land.Grassland is the main source of crop land.Key influence factors that affect the distribution of the crop land are slope,elevation,density of population.Key influence factors that affect the distribution of the forest land is terrain niche,slope,per-capita net income.Key influence factor that affect the distribution of the grass land is terrain niche.Key influence factor that affect the distribution of the cultivated land is the distance to the village.Key influence factor that affect the distribution of the water body is elevation.Key influence factors that affect the distribution of the unused land are terrain niche,elevation,per-capita net income,the distance to the organic town,the distance to the mining land.