Rainfall is one of the important factors that induce geo-hazards. The early warning of regional geo-hazards based on the meteorological factor started in 2003, had achieved good results. The current early warning of regional geo-hazards are step by step from the "danger warning"to "risk warning". Early-warning model study of regional geo-hazards risk based on the meteorological factor is of great significance. This paper put forward the general model of early warning for regional geo-hazards risk based on the meteorological factor, and took a case study of Qingchuan County, Sichuan Province. Finally, the effect of the early warning was verified with a typical example. (1) The regional geo-hazards risk warning index (R) could be generalized as the product of geo-hazards potentiality parameter (Q), rainfall trigger factor (T) and vulnerability index (V). The calculation formulas of the three index (Q, T, V) were given respectively. (2) The early warning model of regional geo-hazards risk based on meteorological factor was established in Qingchuan County. According to the early warning index of regional geo-hazards, the principle dividing warning level was given. When two items of Q, T and V reached a high level (0. 8) and one item reached a relative high level (0. 6), it was a red alert; When two items of Q, T and V reached a relative high level (0. 6) and one item reached a middle level (0. 3), it was a orange alert; When one item of Q, T and V reached a relatively high level (0. 6), and two items reached a middle level (0. 3), it was a yellow alert. (3) Taking 26 June, 2018 as a typical example, the early warning of regional geo-hazards risk based on meteorological factor was simulated. With the actual geo-hazards, the warning effect was verified. The results showed that 94. 1％of the geo-hazards were located in the warning area.%降雨是诱发地质灾害的重要因素之一,中国大陆于2003年启动的区域地质灾害气象预警取得了较好成效,目前区域地质灾害气象预警业务逐步从地质灾害发生的"危险性"预警向"风险性"预警转变,开展区域地质灾害气象风险预警模型研究具有重要意义.本文总结提出了区域地质灾害气象风险预警概化模型及其计算方法,以四川省青川县为例,构建了青川县区域地质灾害气象风险预警模型,并以典型实例进行了预警效果校验.(1)区域地质灾害风险预警指数(R)可以概化为地质灾害潜势度(Q)、降雨诱发因子(T)和地质灾害承灾体脆弱性指标(V)三者的乘积,并分别给出了三者的计算公式.(2)构建了青川县区域地质灾害气象风险预警模型,给出了根据预警指数值划分区域地质灾害气象风险预警等级的依据,提出当Q、T、V中两项达到高等级(0.8),一项达到较高等级(0.6)时,为红色预警;当Q、T、V中两项达到较高等级(0.6),一项达到中等级(0.3)时,为橙色预警;当Q、T、V中一项达到较高等级(0.6),两项达到中等级(0.3)时,为黄色预警.(3)以2018年6月26日为典型实例,模拟了四川青川县区域地质灾害气象风险预警实况并进行校验,结果显示94.1％的灾害点位于预警区范围内.
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