基于SARIMA模型的岩溶山区泉流量动态预测

摘要

地下水天然露头作为岩溶山区农村的重要供水水源,其流量动态的变化对供水的保障程度起到决定性作用.本文以堰塘泉为例,分析了泉流量的年内、年际变化规律,采用SARIMA模型,建立了拟合预测模型.分析结果表明,堰塘泉流量存在年内的季节性变化;拟合及预测结果表明,SARIMA模型应用于短期预测精度较高,长期预测虽然精度降低,但实测值仍处于95％的预测范围之间,说明该模型可用于短期预测,其长期预测结果对地下水天然露头开发利用也有一定的参考价值.%Natural outcrop of groundwater in karst mountainous countryside is an important water supply source.Its flow dynamic changes in the degree of security of water supply play a decisive role.This paper takes Yantang springs as an example and analyzes the spring flow rate.Using the change law of the SARIMA model,it established a fitting prediction model.The analysis results show that the Yantang springs flow has seasonal changes over the years.Fitting and predicted results show that SARIMA model is applicable to short-term prediction with high accuracy.But its precision is reduced for long-term forecast.Between the measured value,it is still in the 95％ of the predicted range,which indicates that the model can be used for short-term forecast.The long-term predicted results can provide reference for natural outcrop of groundwater development and utilization.