Based on the relevant statistical data of industrial environment and economy of eight prefectural cities in Anhui reach of Huaihe River Basin from 2005 to 2014, the non-parametric Kernel function is adopted to describe the dynamic evolution of per capita GDP and industrial pollution emissions, and the environmental Kuznets curve ( EKC) model for Huaihe River Basin is established to study the effects of the relationship between its change of ecological environment quality economic growth. The results show that the level of economic development in the region is generally in the rising phase, and the differences between prefectural regions become large with the advance of time. The kernel density distributions of per capita industrial wastewater emissions and per capita industrial emissions have a certain similarity. The per capita industrial emissions have a linear relationship with the per capita GDP. The per capita industrial wastewater emissions and per capita industrial solid waste emissions have a positive U-type quadratic curve relationship with the per capita GDP, which is not fully in accordance with the typical Kuznets characteristic curve. Most areas of Huaihe River Basin in Anhui Province are still at the stage with economic development and ecological environment deterioration.%基于2005—2014年淮河流域安徽段8个地级市工业环境与经济相关统计数据,通过非参数Kernel函数估计描绘该区域人均GDP和工业污染排放物的动态演进过程,进而构建淮河流域环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型,考察淮河流域生态环境质量变迁与经济增长的关系.研究表明:该区域的经济发展水平整体处于上升阶段,随着时间推移地区之间差距拉大,而人均工业废水排放和人均工业废气排放的核密度估计分布图存在一定的相似性;人均工业废气排放量与人均GDP呈现线性关系,人均工业废水排放量和人均工业固体废弃物排放量与人均GDP之间均表现出正"U"型二次曲线关系,与典型的EKC曲线特征不是完全符合,安徽淮河流域大部分地区仍然处于随经济发展而生态环境不断恶化阶段.
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