首页> 中文期刊> 《生态与农村环境学报》 >基于Agent的农工复合型生态产业园的建模与仿真

基于Agent的农工复合型生态产业园的建模与仿真

         

摘要

农工复合型生态产业园是集农业和工业为一体的社会-经济-自然复合区域产业共生系统。构建了一个“企业+农户”的小层面农工复合生态工业园,运用基于Agent的建模方法,建立了农工复合型生态产业园产品和废物交换框架模型,通过系统仿真研究了园区经济效益、环境效益和社会效益,从系统仿真角度探讨产业共生行为对农工复合产业生态系统发展演变的影响和作用。仿真结果表明,园区总产值、总利润和园区内共生交易额均随周期的变化保持增长直至平稳,当共生企业加入园区时增幅明显;园区中废物利用率在共生企业加入后迅速增长,农药和化肥使用量逐渐减少,有机肥使用量增加;园区带动生态化种植农户比例的增加表明越来越多的农户选择生态化种植道路。%An agro⁃industrial compound eco⁃industrial park is a society⁃economy⁃nature symbiotic system integrating agri⁃culture and industry. A small⁃scale "enterprise and peasant household" agro⁃industrial compound eco⁃industrial park with a product⁃waste exchanging framework model is built up, using the Agent⁃based modeling method. Its economic, environ⁃mental and social benefits are analyzed through systematic simulation,and impacts and effects of the agro⁃industrial symbio⁃sis on development and evolution of the agro⁃industrial compound ecosystem discussed in depth from the viewpoint of sys⁃tem simulation. Results of the simulation show that total output, total profit and symbiotic turnover of the park all display a stably rising trend along with cyclic changes and the increase is getting more obvious when symbiotic enterprises join in. The waste recycling rate in the park grows rapidly,the pesticide and chemical fertilizer application rates reduce gradually, and the organic manure application rate increases. Development of the park brings about a high proportion of eco⁃farming households, indicating that more and more farmers choose the path of eco⁃farming.

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