基于公共政策外部性理论，选择政策评估的侧面影响模型作为农业政策环境评价的基本模型；采用多元线性回归分析方法识别我国不同区域种植业面源污染的农业政策影响因素，研究现有农业政策如何通过调整单位面积化肥使用量而对种植业面源污染产生影响。结果表明，现行的农业土地政策、农业结构政策、农业财政政策和农村人力资源政策均对种植业面源污染有显著影响，农业政策对种植业面源污染风险的缓解有正向、负向2种效应；影响各区域种植业面源污染的农业政策指标组合互有差异，同一个农业政策指标对不同区域种植业面源污染影响的正负效应也有差异。侧面影响模型结合多元线性回归分析适用于农业政策环境评价研究；农业政策对种植业的面源污染影响分析能够为政策层面进行种植业面源污染风险控制与管理提供理论参考。%Based on the externality theory of public policies, the side⁃effect model for policy evaluation was adopted as the basic model for strategic environmental assessment of agricultural policies and used in combination with the multivariate linear regression analysis method to identify factors of the agricultural policies affecting agricultural non⁃point source pollu⁃tion in different regions of China and to study how the prevailing agricultural policies affect agricultural non⁃point source pollution by regulating fertilizer application rate per unit area. Results indicate that the prevailing agricultural policies for land use, agricultural structure, finance and human resources all have some significant impacts, which are either positive or negative, varying with combination of the agricultural policy indices and the region, as well. The side⁃effect model, in combination with the multivariate linear regression analysis method is found applicable to strategic environmental assessment of agricultural policy. The analysis of impacts of the agricultural policies on agricultural non⁃point source pollu⁃tion may provide some theoretical references for management and control of agricultural non⁃point source pollution risks at the policy level.
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