利用1995-2015年的统计数据,运用排放系数法、格兰杰检验和协整检验对新疆农业现代化进程中的碳排放效应进行研究.结果表明:(1)新疆农业现代化进程中的碳排放总量、农业化学化碳排放量、农业机械化碳排放量、农业水利化碳排放量均呈明显上升态势,而碳排放强度呈波动下降特征;(2)农业碳排放结构发生了显著变化,碳排放结构由以农业机械化碳排放为主向以农业化学化碳排放为主转变;(3)新疆各地州(市)的农业碳排放量空间分异明显,喀什地区、昌吉州和伊犁州直等人口较多、耕地资源丰富和种植业发展较好的地州农业碳排放量规模较大;(4)农业经济增长是导致农业碳排放量上升的驱动因素,而且存在长期稳定的关系.为此,要顺利推进新疆农业现代化进程,必须协调好经济发展与农业碳排放的关系,走低碳农业发展道路.%Based on the statistical data of the years from 1995 to 2015, carbon emission effect of the process of agricultur-al modernization in Xinjiang was studied using the emission coefficient method, Granger test and cointegration test. Results show: ( 1 ) Total carbon emission and carbon emissions from agricultural chemicals, agricultural mechanics and agricultural water conservancy all exhibited an apparent upward trend in the process of agricultural modernization in Xin-jiang, while carbon emission intensity did a fluctuating downward one; ( 2) The agricultural carbon emission in Xinjiang changed significantly in structure with the agricultural modernization going on with pivot shifting from agricultural mechanics to agricultural chemicals;( 3) Agricultural carbon emission varied spatially and significantly with states or cities high in population, rich in land resource and well-developed in farming like Kashi, Changji and Yili, being high in agri-cultural carbon emission;and ( 4) Agricultural economic growth was the major factor driving agricultural carbon emission upwards, showing a long standing relationship between them. Therefore, in order to push forward the process of agricultural modernization in Xinjiang, it is essential to harmonize the relationship between agricultural carbon emission and economic development, by taking a low-carbon path to agricultural modernization.
展开▼
