物料需求计划不稳定性的模拟研究

摘要

介绍物料需求计划不稳定性的基本概念和模拟研究方法。在不确定性需求的滚动式计划环境下，研究冻结参数和计划算法在不同生产条件下对物料需求计划不稳定性的影响。通过设计模拟实验和大量模拟计算及统计分析发现：费用结构、预测模式、冻结比例、计划周期和计划算法对物料需求计划不稳定性有较大影响，且交互作用显著。研究结果对减小物料需求计划的不稳定性有一定指导意义。%For material requirements planning with uncertain demands under rolling horizon, a simulation is conducted to study the impacts of the freezing parameters and two typical scheduling algorithms on the instability of the production schedule in different production environments. Numerous simulation experiments and statistical analyses show that the impacts of cost structure, forecasting model, freezing proportion, replanning proportion and scheduling algorithm on the instability of the production schedule are significant. The interactive effects between them are also significant. These results are useful when practitioners intend to reduce the nervousness of their production schedule by selecting optimal or reasonable freezing parameters and scheduling algorithms under their own production conditions.