Based on the experience in Japan and practical situations in China, the necessity of building e-mergency shelters for earthquake disasters in Shanghai is studied in this paper. A model is developed for analyzing the dynamic behavior when an earthquake happens. By this model, engineering and technological features, such as geologic and geographic factors, the speed on the earth' s surface, the possibility of water supply cut-off, are considered. Also, sociological and psychological features, such as patience to the water supply cut-off and human choices on emergency shelters, are considered. With the model and in light of human factors, the effect of different features on the need for emergency shelters is analyzed. It shows that there is significant difference between the results obtained by the proposed model and that from the model based on the constructional features. The needs caused by constructional features may be 60% less than the maximal one. In addition, it also shows the changing tendency for emergency shelter needs by time.%借鉴日本在地震应急避难场所建设方面的经验和成果,结合上海市的具体情况,建立了上海市地震应急避难场所的需求分析模型,并利用实际数据进行计算.在分析过程中综合考虑了地质和地理、地表速度、断水率等工程技术因素,同时还考虑了人群忍受断水能力、人群避难选择等人因条件.通过对比不同因素对于总体需求的影响程度,分析了地震应急避难场所建设中人因的重要性.研究结果表明,由于综合考虑人因作用,计算结果与单纯建筑学的计算结果存在较大差别.在避难的高峰时刻建筑物损害造成的避难需求低于总体需求的60％.该模型的结果揭示了避难人群数量随时间而变化的规律.
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