考虑失效相关性的普通药品供应中断模型

摘要

To solve the prevention problem of disruption of ordinary medicine in a supply chain, an effective way is to establish a robust and reliable disruption model so as to find best suppliers for the customers. The issue addressed in this work is how to eliminate the limitations caused by assumption that suppliers are independence. After qualitatively analyzing the correlation between the suppliers, a quantitative model a-bout the correlation between the suppliers is developed by using the reliability theory. Then, by using the characteristics of ordinary medicine, a supply disruption model of ordinary medicine with failure correlation between suppliers is proposed. Result shows that, by minimizing the expected total cost to find the most reliable suppliers for customers, the model can reduce the disruption risk of ordinary medicine. At the same time, by doing so, the limitations resulting from the assumption of supplier independence are eliminated and thus more reliable solution can be obtained.%为更好地预防和解决普通药品供应链的中断问题,构建一个稳健可靠的中断模型来为顾客找到最为可靠的供应商是一条行之有效的途径.针对基于供应商独立性假设带来的局限性问题,在对供应商间的相关性定性分析的基础上,运用可靠性理论,构造了供应商间相关性的定量模型,进而根据普通药品的特性提出了基于失效相关性的普通药品供应中断模型.研究表明,通过最小化期望总成本,能为顾客找到最为可靠的供应商,从而能有效降低普通药品供应链的中断风险,同时解决了基于供应商独立性假设所带来的局限性问题,使所得结论更为可靠.