基于圆分布法和时间序列模型的公共自行车需求量分析

摘要

In order to forecast the demand of a public bicycle system , obtain effective schedule , and satis-fy the public requirement , a method is proposed to analyze the demands of public bicycles by using a cir -cular distribution and time series model .The demand peak for a public bicycle system is first determined by using the method of circular distribution .Then, the demand at the peak is analyzed by using time series model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparison between the predicted demand and the reality .%为了实现对公共自行车租赁系统需求量的预测，从而能够帮助租赁系统提前做出合理的调度，满足租赁人群出行的需要。提出了基于圆分布法与时间序列模型的定量分析方法。一方面，运用圆分布法分析在潮汐性交通现象下公共自行车租赁需求量的定量特征，从而确定公共自行车租赁的需求高峰时段。另一方面，运用时间序列模型对高峰期的租赁需求量进行分析和预测。通过预测结果与实际值的对比，证实了本文提出的方法的有效性。