不确定情景下应急物资储备库选址问题研究

摘要

Due to the uncertainty in accident locations and demands for rescue , it is important and mean-ingful to locate an emergency supply stockpile warehouse .With the uncertainty in accident locations and demands for rescue considered , a robust optimization model is presented by setting a series of demanding scenarios.By this model, the distance between the warehouse and an accident location is within a given range .Then , a genetic algorithm is designed to solve the problem .It is compared with the stochastic opti-mization model .Result shows that the proposed method outperforms the stochastic optimization solution method.Moreover, the proposed method can effectively reduce the effect of uncertainty in the site selec-tion.%针对在地震等自然灾害发生时受灾点以及应急需求均为不确定的情况，研究了灾前预置应急物资储备库的选址问题。通过设计多个需求情景来描述受灾点与应急需求的不确定性，建立了有最大运输距离限制的鲁棒优化模型，并设计了鲁棒优化方法。通过数值计算比较分析鲁棒优化方法和随机优化方法的计算结果，表明鲁棒优化解受不确定因素产生的偏差要比随机优化解小，鲁棒优化方法能够有效地减弱不确定性因素对选址方案的影响，并且能降低由预测偏差带来的风险。