基于物元分析-未确知测度理论的地下矿山安全避险“六大系统”可靠性评估方法

摘要

In order to making dynamic analysis of“six systems” in underground mine,the evaluation system of“six systems” was established,and 31 evaluation indexes were put forward from the monitoring and supervision system,personnel position system,urgent danger prevention system,forced draught self-rescue system,water supply system and communication system six aspects.Analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and matter-element analysis were used to determine the index weight of synthesis.With the unascertained measure theory as assessment tool, the comprehensive evaluation model o f“six systems” in underground mine was constructed.This system was applied to making comprehensive evaluation of risks involved with a certain“six systems” in underground mine.The results show that the comprehensive evaluation model realized ordered segmentation of evaluation space,the results can conform to the experts thought,and the model is operable in practice.%为实现对地下矿山安全避险“六大系统”的可靠性评估，构建安全避险“六大系统”评价指标体系，从监测监控系统、人员定位系统、紧急避险系统、压风自救系统、供水施救系统和通信联络系统6个方面提出31个评价指标；结合物元分析与层次分析法（AHP）进行合成确定各评价指标权重，并以未确知测度理论作为评估工具，构建地下矿山安全避险“六大系统”可靠性评估模型；最后，以某矿山安全避险“六大系统”为例进行评价分析。结果表明：基于物元分析—未确知测度理论的地下矿山安全避险“六大系统”评估方法实现了对评价空间的有序分割，评估结果符合专家思维，在实际应用中具有可操作性。