浙江省“十二五”大气污染物排放增量不确定因素及对策研究

摘要

During the ＂12th Five - year Plan＂, pollutants emission increment may exceed the forecasted value due on the uncertainties of economic and social development plan, and it may influence the availability of emission reduction targets. In order to achieve the atmospheric pollutants emission reduction targets of Zhejiang Province during ＂12th five - year plan＂, the uncertainties which may affect the emission reduction targets were analyzed from the perspective of GDP, energy consumption and the num- ber of motor vehicles. On such a basis, some countermeasures were put forward, includes improving the quality of economic growth, the implementing the control of total coal consumption and motor vehicle quantity, improving the compensation utilization and trading of pollution rights.%在“十二五”发展过程中，基于经济社会发展规划目标测算的污染物排放增量存在诸多不确定性，极有可能突破预期值，因此在满足社会经济发展规划基础上提出的减排目标可达性也存在一定风险。为确保浙江省“十二五”大气污染物减排目标顺利完成，从GDP、能源消费、机动车保有量等方面分析了可能影响浙江省“十二五”大气污染物排放增量的不确定因素，并从提高经济发展质量、实施煤炭总量控制、试行机动车总量控制、推进排污权有偿使用和交易等方面提出针对性控制对策。