能源承载力预测分析方法的研究与应用研究

摘要

Energy demand is closely related to population and economy.Energy demand analysis is conducted under the hypothesis of designed population and economic growth.From the perspective of the input and output, energy demand depends on the final demand and the intermediate process to the terminal demand.Factors such as the change of economic structure, the choice of economic growth mode, technological progress, availability of nice energy and environmental protection requirements will affect the final demand and the intermediate process.Because resources are important to the countries and regions, the re-search of resource carrying capacity is becoming more and more important.Therefore, it is necessary to forecast and analysis the energy demand of a region and improve the development and management of the region so as to realize the sustainable develop-ment of the region.%能源需求和人口、经济密切相关。能源需求分析是在一定的人口和经济增长假设下进行的。从投入产出角度看，能源需求的高低取决于终端需求与满足终端需求的中间过程。经济结构的变化，经济增长模式的选择，技术进步，优质能源的可获得性，环境保护要求等因素会对终端需求和中间过程产生影响。由于资源对国家和地区的重要性，资源承载力的研究显得尤为重要。因此有必要对一个区域的能源需求量作出预测和分析，提高区域发展和管理的科学性，从而实现区域的可持续发展。