城镇化、居民生活能源消费与生活碳排放之间关系的实证研究

摘要

利用中国1995年－2012年居民生活能源消费数据，通过协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验等方法对城镇化、居民生活能源消费与碳排放之间关系进行了实证研究，结果发现：城镇化、居民生活能源消费与碳排放存在长期均衡关系；城镇化程度的提高会降低CO2排放；生活能源消费的增加是CO2排放提高的重要原因。居民生活能源消费与CO2排放之间存在着双向格兰杰因果关系。提出稳步推进新型城镇化进程、合理进行生活能源消费、调控城乡居民生活能源消费等建议。%Using residential energy consumption date from 1995 to 2012 in China, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between urbanization, residential energy consumption and the carbon emissions through the co-integration test, Granger causality test and so on.The results are as follows:there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization, residential energy consumption and the carbon emissions.The increase of urbanization degree will reduce CO2 emissions in China. The energy consumption is the important reason of the CO2 emissions levels.There is bidirectional Granger causal from residential energy consumption to CO2 emissions.The study puts forward some suggestions such as steadily pushing forward the new urbaniza-tion process, using rational of energy of life, regulating the energy consumption of urban and rural residents etc.