福建省经济－资源－环境系统协调发展的演化分析研究

摘要

With the coordination development degree theory, this paper first uses the entropy method, regression analysis method, and fuzzy membership function theory to build the coordinated development evaluation system of ERE system in Fujian province.Then, uses mathematical statistics methods and models, from the angle of time sequence in 14 years to measure the co-ordinated development situation of economy, resources and environment subsystems and explore the development mechanism be-tween the subsystems in Fujian province.The results show that 1.From 2000 to 2013 the economy and environment system grow rapid and reach high level, but the growth of resource system lags behind and fluctuates significantly;2.Coordination develop-ment degree of ERE system in Fujian province is an internal interaction, self-organization, dynamically spiral upward process;3.The response and feedback of the resource system to the economy system is significantly, the resource constraint has became the main factor of restricting the development of Fujian province.So improve the resources system development level, improve the quality of economy development is vital to the future development of Fujian province.%借助协调度理论，运用熵值法、回归分析法、模糊数学隶属度函数构建福建省ERE系统协调发展评价体系，采用数理统计方法和模型，从时间序列的角度对福建省14年来经济、资源、环境协调发展现状进行定量衡量并探讨系统间的发展机制。研究结果表明：①2000年－2013年经济、环境子系统发展迅速，发展水平高，资源子系统的发展滞后于经济、环境子系统，呈现不稳定的波动增长态势；②福建省ERE系统协调度发展是一个内部子系统协同交互、螺旋升降的自组织动态演化过程；③资源系统对经济系统的响应和反馈非常明显，资源掣肘成为制约福建省发展的主要因素，因此，提高资源系统发展水平，提高经济发展的质量是今后福建省发展的关键。