几种软土路基沉降预测方法的对比分析

摘要

介绍泊松曲线法、Asaoka法、修正双曲线、灰色GM (1 ,1)模型4种常用的软土路基沉降预测方法 ,讨论预测起止时间对预测效果的影响 ,通过分析各个预测方法的曲线回归相关系数和预测误差的大小 ,得出各个预测方法的最优预测起止时间 ,并结合实例 ,进一步验证各个最优预测方法的适用性 ,得出泊松曲线法和Asaoka法的预测效果优于其它几种预测方法.%Four kinds of commonly-used methods of soft soil subgrade settlement prediction ,Poisson curve method ,Asaoka method ,modified hyperbolic ,and grey GM (1 ,1) model ,are introduced in this paper .And the impact of beginning and ending time of prediction on forecasting results is discussed here .Through the analysis of curve regression correlation coefficient and forecast errors of each prediction method ,the optimal beginning and ending time of prediction of each method are got .Combining with the example to verify the applicability of each optimal forecasting method ,it can be acquired that Poisson curve method and Asaoka method are superior to several other prediction methods .