基于ARIMA模型的市内人群移动预测

摘要

城市内部人群移动模式的研究在城市规划、交通量预测和疾病的防控等领域具有重要的应用价值.已有研究多基于出行数据探索人群移动模式 ,文中基于新浪微博位置签到数据 ,从时间序列建模角度结合A RIM A模型 ,建立武汉市人群移动的季节性模型实验表明 ,模型ARIMA(3 ,0 ,2)(1 ,1 ,0)12能较好地拟合并预测武汉市人群移动趋势 ,对城市规划和决策具有重要参考价值.%Investigation of intra-urban human mobility patterns has great importance in the fields of urban planning ,traffic forecasting ,and disease prevention .Most of the current studies focus on the human mobility patterns based on travel data .The seasonal human mobility model of Wuhan is established based on SinaWeibo check-in data from the perspective of time series ARIM A model in this paper .Experiments indicate that ARIMA(3 ,0 ,2)(1 ,1 ,0)12model can be well fitted with the change trend of human mobility in Wuhan and can achieve better prediction results ,w hich has important application value in the research of city planning and decision-making .